Looking back over the last twenty years (or so), I think about the changes that have come about and also about what the near future will bring. When I first started work as a truck mechanic, all diesel truck engines were mechanically injected. Cabovers were more common than conventionals, and many trucks and probably most trailers still rolled on spoke-type (Dayton) wheels. Bias ply, tube type tires were still common, as were multi-piece wheels (split rims).
All these things have changed. All vehicle engines (at least those built in this country) are electronically injected, and a cabover tractor is a rarity, at least in most areas. There are probably a few railroad trailers still running bias tires, but those too, are very rare. Multi-piece wheels are no longer seen at all.
To anyone who longs for bygone days I will say that either you weren’t there or you have a very short memory. Things are better now for mechanics as well as drivers. Trucks are much more comfortable and easier to drive, more economical, and there is no comparison as to sleeper accommodations. For mechanics the situation has improved even more. Modern trucks require much less periodic maintenance and run more miles to overhaul. Of course, they are also much more complicated and when they do need work, harder to work on than trucks of the past. That said, I will take today over yesterday without hesitation.
I still occasionally hear someone talk about “the good old days” of being able to fix an engine by the side of the road with just the tools in a small carry box. I say that is like stating that a model T is better than a modern car because it could be started with a crank. I remember long days and nights out on the road or in the shop in subzero weather, starting (or attempting to start) trucks with gelled or frozen fuel. Nor do I really miss steel spring replacement, breaking down and reassembling split rims (after patching the tube), doing brake jobs on spoke wheels, or diagnosing and repairing series/parallel electrical systems. All these things were common when I started out, and good riddance.
Ok, I will get off the soapbox and talk about what I see coming in the near future. Technology is driven by economics, and fuel economy, driver retention, and cost to repair will continue to be challenges. We as mechanics are concerned with the last factor. I believe that the repair field will become more stratified as time goes by. What I mean is that I think there will be two groups of technicians; diagnosticians who are highly trained (and paid), who will figure out what needs to be done and how to do it, and another group of lesser skilled techs who will basically change parts and do services. This division has always been present to some extent, as some techs just have no desire to learn new technologies. They will have work but will never make top wages or advance to the top of the field. The problem is that according to all information, there will be a shortage of qualified mechanics as the workforce ages. This is happening now. I don’t know what the average age of a mechanic is nowadays, but I visit quite a few shops and everybody is starting to look decidedly gray around the edges.
What I am leading up to is that economics will drive truck technology ahead at an ever increasing rate. Soon, your truck will communicate with the manufacturer every time it is started up and will continue to communicate while it is running down the road. The manufacturer may detect a problem before the driver is even aware of it. The driver will get a message to visit the nearest dealer, and will be sent that dealer’s location and directions to get there. When he arrives, the job will already be scheduled and a repair procedure in place. All operating parameters not sent in real time will be gathered at the dealer and sent to the manufacturer via wireless or internet. The manufacturer will be involved in repair and diagnosis of the individual truck to a much greater extent than at present, and Artificial Intelligent systems will do much of the diagnosis without human intervention.
Vehicle systems will use wireless, Bluetooth-type systems to monitor tire pressure and the reefer environment. Communication between vehicle computers and sensors will be done by two-way RF (radio frequency) transmission, so that engine temperature, pressure, and position sensors will communicate with the computer without needing wires. All these things are possible right now with present technology and all are certainly being worked on.
Future trucks will also look different from those made today. As fuel gets more and more costly, aerodynamics will play an even greater role in design. Gap enclosures on the rear of tractors have been used for some years, to keep moving air out of the space between tractor and trailer. Hoods have become lower and grills smaller. In the last few years, air control add-ons have become common on trailers. Side skirts deflect moving air from under the trailer, and boat tail add-ons have recently been seen on road trailers. Trailer manufacturers will soon integrate these elements into their designs and extend the concepts to include wheel enclosures, rounded corners, and tapered rear ends. Skirts have already smoothed the sides of modern tractors, and further use of integrated skirting and wheel enclosure will be seen. Some time soon, one of the tractor manufacturers will come out with a design that puts all of these elements together and looks as radical to our eyes as the Kenworth T2000 did a decade ago, and other manufacturers will follow suit. The next step would be the integration of tractor and trailer, the two being designed to work together, if not actually being comprised of a single unit.
The obvious question is how a shrinking and aging workforce will change to keep up with the technology to come, how training will change with the times, and whether wages will keep up with everything else.
According to the May, 2011 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report, the average Diesel Engine Mechanic salary is $42,250. http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes493031.htm This compares to $32,344 in 2000, so wages are almost keeping up with the cost of living. Whether this trend will continue in the face of change remains to be seen, but indications are that formal training, and probably better training, will be ever more important in the future. If I am correct in my assessment of the increased stratification outlined above, real wages in the field could actually go down relative to the cost of living. The increased wages of the top diagnostic techs may be offset by the larger number of lower paid positions. I have not seen any information supporting this scenario, but if you look at other fields, you can see parallels. Today for instance, Physician Assistants perform much of the work traditionally done by doctors.
At any rate, it is obvious that an untrained hopeful entering the job market will be at more and more of a disadvantage in finding a good position. Shops of all types will be increasingly reluctant to hire and train techs who don’t have the skills needed to fix modern equipment. Training will need to encompass not only traditional core mechanical skills, but knowledge of computer, internet, electronic, and communication subjects will become more necessary. Techs will need to know how to pick up new information efficiently and quickly if they wish to advance. Specialized bachelor-level degrees will form for the highest level of technician training.
All in all, the next ten to twenty years will be a very interesting time to be involved in the industry, and who knows, truck mechanics may finally get the public respect they have long deserved.
Bruce 12/31/2011
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